Final Update of Season

All statistics and reports have been updated to include each played during the season. Here were the top four teams in the Adjusted Efficiency Rankings following this season:

  1. Alabama
  2. Mississippi
  3. TCU
  4. Ohio State
  5. Oregon

If any Ohio State fans get upset upon viewing these rankings, please remember that the Buckeyes won the most legitimate national championship in the sport’s history. I’ll even state that these rankings unquestionably underrate the Buckeyes and overrate Ole Miss. Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon, and TCU likely fielded the four best teams. (No reasonable person can fault the selection committee for including Florida State over Baylor when they went undefeated in a power conference.)

The SEC West’s performance in non-conference games elevated its standing in this year’s Adjusted Efficiency Rankings despite a disappointing bowl season. SEC West teams went 23-5 in non-conference games while winning by an average efficiency margin of 17.3 points. College football’s limited sample of non-league matchups will inevitably lead to quirky rankings like this.

Thanks to everyone who visited FBS Drive Stats this past season. Your traffic inspires me to continue passionately working on this project.

Post-Bowl Update

Statistics have been updated to include all bowl games played through January 3rd. Expect an update that includes the results from the Toledo – Arkansas State game in the next day or two.

The Adjusted Efficiency Rankings remain saturated with SEC teams at the top. The top five consists of Alabama, Ole Miss, TCU, Oregon, and Ohio State. I personally do not believe Ole Miss has the second best team in the country, but this ranking system typically does a solid job of ranking the eventual national champion as its top team. This is just one of those years where that will not be the case.

FBS Drive Stats correctly predicted 23 out of 38 bowl games this year. Sadly, this still somehow beat ESPN’s predictions by a few games. I will eagerly state that FBS Drive Stats posted a record of 59-11 from November 29th through December 26th. After December 26th, this prediction success rate began regress back to the mean.

This year’s national championship ought to be spectacularly entertaining. The Log5 formula gives Oregon a 55.2% chance of winning this game. Despite that probability, I genuinely view this game as a coin flip. Ohio State marched into New Orleans and took down Alabama with their third-string quarterback. The Buckeyes have scored a touchdown on 40% of their drives with Cardale Jones at quarterback, and this is only a 4.7% drop off from J.T. Barrett. Ezekial Elliot’s forty carries for 450 yards and 4 touchdowns have unquestionably helped this transition.

Despite Ohio State’s injuries at quarterback, Oregon has suffered more roster attrition this season. I do wonder if the absence of players like Devon Allen, Pharaoh Brown, and Ife Ekpre-Olomu will eventually prevent the Ducks from flying together and defeating Iceland Ohio State because the Buckeyes will be Oregon’s toughest game yet. (I watched Mighty Ducks as a kid and remain unashamed of that fact.) Then again, Marcus Mariota deservedly won the Heisman after losing his top returning receiver (Bralon Addison) and All-American left tackle (Tyler Johnstone) to season-ending injuries before Oregon’s first game.

Week Sixteen Update

Statistics have been updated to include yesterday’s Army-Navy game. The following statistics have been added to this site:

  • Rushing percentage (Rush%)
  • Passing percentage (Pass%)
  • Rushes per ten drives (Rush/10)
  • Passes per ten drives (Pass/10)
  • Plays per ten drives (Plays/10)
  • Three and out percentage (3&Out%)

Win probabilities for this year’s bowl games can be accessed under Stats & Docs.

CFBStats provides the data for the statistics shown on FBS Drive Stats.

Week Fifteen Update

Statistics have been updated to include all games played through the fifteenth week of the season.

The Adjusted Efficiency Rankings and all other statistics can be accessed via the menu bar. Here were the rankings for the four playoff teams:

1) Alabama
6) Oregon
8) Ohio State
16) Florida State

Florida State’s close games with inferior opponents contributed to their low ranking. Based on their offensive and defensive points per drive, the Seminoles were expected to win 71.4% of their games. This means they should have won eight to nine games.

Oregon’s production with Jake Fisher at left tackle makes a bona fide threat to take down the Tide in a shootout. With Fisher at left tackle this season, the Ducks have averaged 43.3 points per ten drives. Without Fisher, Marcus Mariota and the Oregon offense saw its efficiency plummet to 26.6 in their two games against Washington State and Arizona.

The fascinating thing about the Sugar Bowl will be Nick Saban and Urban Meyer facing one another for the first time since Meyer left the SEC. Saban beat Meyer in two of his three meetings against Meyer’s Gators. The Crimson Tide averaged 33.9 points per ten drives and allowed 22.7 points per ten drives.

CFB Stats provided the data for FBS Drive Stats.